Speed Debate
Can you really time the market?
Short answer
Not off sold prices. A sale you see today was agreed one to three months ago. If you wait for the sold data to confirm the bottom, the market has usually moved before you act.
Every buyer wants the same thing: buy at the bottom, just before prices lift. It’s a fair goal. The question we put to each other in this Speed Debate was simple. With all the data out there now, can a buyer actually pull it off?
The case for yes
There’s more property data available than ever. Sold prices, suburb reports, median trends, online estimates. Track enough sales over enough months and you can see a direction. On paper, spotting the turn looks like a spreadsheet exercise.
The data isn’t the problem. The timing of the data is.
Why sold prices are an echo, not the market
When you look up a sold price, you’re looking at the end of a process that started weeks earlier. The price was negotiated and agreed on the day the contract was signed. Then comes settlement, typically 30 to 60 days later. Many sold records only show up once that’s done and the transfer is recorded.
The life of one sale
So the sold price is an echo of where the market was. If prices started lifting two months ago, the sales that prove it are only now surfacing. By the time the numbers confirm the bottom, the bottom is behind you.
What to watch instead
If sold prices tell you where the market was, these tell you where it is now:
- How many homes are for sale. Listings drying up while buyers stay active is the earliest pressure signal.
- How long homes take to sell. When good homes go under contract in the first week or two, the market is moving.
- Price reductions. Fewer reductions across your target suburbs means sellers are holding their ground.
- Open home crowds. You’re standing in the evidence. Count the people and the contracts being asked for.
- How your own offers land. If you’re missing out by small margins, or getting beaten to homes before you’ve made a call, that’s the market talking.
None of these give you a guaranteed bottom. They get you closer to the present, which is the best any buyer can do.
Is waiting for the bottom the right goal?
Here’s the part most buyers skip. Even if you could name the lowest month, you’d still need the right home to be for sale that month, your finance approved and your life ready to move. Those rarely line up with the bottom of a cycle.
Around the Bayside, the right house in the right street doesn’t come up often. Plenty of buyers have held off for a better price and then watched the home they wanted sell to someone who didn’t wait. The saving they were chasing ended up smaller than the cost of starting the search again.
A better question than “is this the bottom?” is “is this the right home at a fair price for today’s market?” That one you can answer.
The verdict
You can read the market, but not by watching sold prices. They’re one to three months behind. Watch what’s happening now, buy when the right home and your finances line up, and negotiate on the house, not the cycle.
Questions buyers ask us
Can you time the property market as a buyer?
Not reliably using sold prices. They reflect deals agreed one to three months earlier, so the market has often moved by the time the data shows it. Current signals like listing numbers, time on market and open home activity give a closer read.
Why are sold prices out of date?
The price is agreed when the contract is signed, but settlement usually happens 30 to 60 days later, and many sales only appear in the data after that. Suburb medians built on those sales are later again.
What shows where the market is right now?
How many homes are listed, how quickly they sell, how often prices are reduced, how busy open homes are and how your own offers are received.
Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?
Only if waiting doesn’t cost you the right home. The bottom of the market rarely lines up with the right property, approved finance and your own timing. Buying a good home at a fair price for today’s market usually beats chasing the lowest month.